Because sometimes a man has to risk looking like an asshole who has no idea what he’s talking about …
The first leg of the Man U vs. Arsenal Semi-Final and the first of three matches in 18 days between the perennial English powerhouses kicks off at Old Trafford on April 29th, with plenty of question marks on both sides.
Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola has enjoyed a dream start to his managerial carrer and put Barca in pole position to win La Liga. Chelsea stuttered under Big Phil, but have seen a revival under Guus Hiddink. Fans of these two giants will expect a pair of explosive meetings, kicking off on April 28th at Camp Nou.
Predictions follow, after the break.
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Man U – Arsenal
Arsenal’s keys to success: A healthy Adebayor could be the difference maker. With Arshavin cup-tied and Van Persie sidelined by a groin pull, Arsene Wenger is mum on the severity of Adebayor’s hamstring problem. His recovery would give Arsenal a much needed attacking threat and allow them to focus on more important things … namely a sieve-like defense that allowed Liverpool 14 shots on target and would probably concede 3 goals against my local AYSO team. With William Gallas out for the season, and Gael Clichy set to be out at least until May, there is no easy answer at the back. Mikaël Silvestre and Kieran Gibbs must improve rapidly. With one of them surely required to mark Ronaldo, it could otherwise turn into a horror-show.
Man U’s keys to success: The Red Devils have their own injury woes to consider. Their defensive line suffered a blow against Portsmouth after John O’Shea and Gary Neville hobbled off. United will need an assured performance from young fullback Rafael, and Rio Ferdinand will need to be at 100% to restore his formidable partnership with Vidic. If Jonny Evans is forced to take the field, costly lapses are likely. Additionally, their midfield pairing (presumably Carrick and either Scholes or Fletcher) must pass the ball efficiently and minimize mistakes in order to capitalize on those that Arsenal’s less experienced mids are likely to make. United will also need an offensive lift. Since the beginning of March they have narrowly scraped wins against Sunderland, Villa, Newcastle, and Porto and have been beaten convincingly by Liverpool and Fulham (and not-so-convincingly by Everton). Berbatov and Ronaldo need to regain their form, and Rooney must maintain his.
And the winner is … Man U by a hair’s breadth. Arsenal are the form team right now, having gone 18 games unbeaten in the league, but the experience is in Manchester. Arsenal’s scrappy young squad will fight admirably, but with so many important players sidelined, they’re still a year or two from a return to the final.
Prediction: Man U (3) – (2) Arsenal (agg)
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Barcelona – Chelsea
Barcelona’s keys to success: The Catalan team will have to maintain their current strong run of defensive form. Seven consecutive clean-sheets in La Liga have made a real statement, but opposition has been less than stellar. The 26-point gap between first and third place in La Liga suggests that they haven’t faced a true domestic challenge (aside, possibly, from Real), nor have they had a real test in CL. They lost to Shakhtar in the group stage and have since played Lyon and Bayern, neither of whom possess great depth or even look likely to win their relatively weak leagues. Barcelona will need to prove that they can cope with Chelsea’s physicality (especially that of Drogba and midfielder Michael Essien) and dynamic offense. Attacking prowess will not be in question for a side that fields Messi, Henry and Eto’o, but central defenders Marquez and Pique must overcome size and inexperience, respectively, to shut down Chelsea’s forwards.
Chelsea’s keys to success: It will be essential for Chelsea to dominate the midfield against Barca. If Xavi and Iniesta are allowed to pull the strings and dictate the tempo of the game, Chelsea could be sliced apart. The contributions of Michael Essien and Michael Ballack (and, depending on strategy, John Obi Mikel) in winning and maintaining the ball will make all the difference. Terry is a stalwart at the back for Chelsea, but none of Chelsea’s center-backs have the pace to cope with Barca’s forward line. With the usually brilliant Carvalho on a run of poor form it will likely fall on Alex’s shoulders to partner Terry and it will be critical for the pair to have a good understanding and maintain their composure. If this tie becomes a shoot-out, Chelsea are likely to lose. Grinding out a gritty, ugly result is their best chance.
And the winner is … Chelsea. Hiddink has a tactical edge over Guardiola, and his troops have something to prove after last season’s penalty meltdown in the final. Barca will pressure early but will break down in the long-run, unable to cope with the size and strength of Chelsea’s squad.
Prediction: Barcelona (3) – (4) Chelsea (agg)
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Schedule:
Barcelona – Chelsea
1st leg Apr. 28th: Camp Nou, Barcelona (ESPN2, 2:30EDT/1:30CDT)
2nd leg May 6th: Stamford Bridge, London (ESPN2, 2:30EDT/1:30CDT)
Man U – Arsenal
1st leg Apr. 29th: Old Trafford, Manchester (ESPN2, 2:30EDT/1:30CDT)
2nd leg May 5th: Emirates Stadium, London (ESPN2, 2:30EDT/1:30CDT)
Speaking English 