NHL Playoff Predictions – First Round 2009

Despite Marty “I Suck at Hockey” Turco’s best efforts, my love of hockey is as strong as ever, and the onset of the NHL Playoffs essentially qualifies as a holiday in my life. Amateur net-minders aside, this year will be excellent, with a number of intense matchups and a few first time participants or long-time absentees back in the fold.

Commence wicked-awesome analysis…

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Boston (1) v. Montreal (8)

The Bruins win if… they focus on beating the team on the ice rather than their dodgy playoff history in Montreal. Watch for Mark Savard and Tim Thomas to shake the labels of selfish playmaker and plucky underdog respectively.

Les Habs win if… Alexei Kovalev can be bothered to spark a relatively docile Montreal attack. It would also help to get Andrei Markov back at some point or end Carey Price’s almost yearlong vacation from quality hockey.

You have to ask yourself… is Phil Kessel going to be tough enough to score in the playoffs? Will Milan Lucic finally accept his post as Cam Neely’s successor?

Prediction: Boston in 4

Washington (2) v. New York Rangers (7)

The Caps win if… it isn’t suddenly 1994 again. Jose Theodore will do enough behind a Washington team that is superior in all other respects to New York. Alex Ovechkin proved last year he plays well in April, this season he’s got more help.

New York wins if… Henrik Lundqvist manages to score from his own net. Or Wade Redden isn’t suddenly criminally over-paid. Or Markus Naslund isn’t old. Or Washington inexplicably and completely collapses under the weight of being a favorite this time around.

You have to ask yourself… when Glen Sather runs out of credit for winning a Stanley Cup almost 15 years ago.

Prediction: Washington in 5

New Jersey (3) v. Carolina (6)

The Devils win if… Martin Brodeur bucks a recent trend of playoff underperformance. New Jersey bucks a recent trend of being awful. Zach Parise is going to need to be a difference maker.

The ‘Canes win if… the back half of the season was a return to form instead of a blistering hot run. The core of this team has won before. They need Eric Staal to lead the way, but watch for an underappreciated defense to excel behind Cam Ward.

You have to ask yourself… does All-Time Great Martin Brodeur have one last dance in him?

Prediction: Carolina in 6

Pittsburgh (4) v. Philadelphia (5)

The Penguins win if… The Flyers can’t keep themselves out of the penalty box. Health will also be important as Peter Sykora is knocked. Bill Guerin and Ruslan Fedotenko are keys as somebody will need to stand up to the aggressive Flyers.

The Flyers win if… Pittsburgh can’t keep their composure under pressure. Martin Biron has been mostly up this season, but Philly can’t afford him to slip now. How much has this team learned from last year’s crushing loss?

You have to ask yourself… is there a better series in the first round? Throw Washington into the mix and you’ve got the heart and soul of the Eastern Conference for the next decade.

Prediction: Philadelphia in 7

WESTERN CONFERENCE

San Jose (1) v. Anaheim (8)

The Sharks win if… their power play keeps Anaheim from playing nasty. It’s funny to consider the #1 seed an under-dog, but Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton deserve every bit of scorn they receive for past post season failures.

The Ducks win if… they get superior goaltending and win the special teams battle. Anaheim isn’t going to stay out of the penalty box, but they should try. Chris Pronger has not been great this season, he needs to step up.

You have to ask yourself… if this isn’t the year the Sharks are finally good enough to win the Cup, when is it going to be?

Prediction: San Jose in 5

Detroit (2) v. Columbus (7)

The Wings win if… their best players show up and play well. They have the depth and talent to overload a plucky Columbus squad, but we haven’t had a repeat Stanley Cup winner since the 90s.

The Blue Jackets win if… we find out Rick Nash is a playoff demigod, or rookie Steve Mason validates Hart Trophy hype. Columbus needs to take one early in Detroit and ride what should be an intense home ice crowd into the second round.

You have to ask yourself… if Joe Lewis Arena is actually going to be an advantage this year. Nowhere is harder hit by the recession than Detroit, will fans still be able to show up?

Prediction: Detroit in 6

Vancouver (3) v. St. Louis (6)

The Canucks win if… Ryan Kesler chips in timely goals. Roberto Luongo is going to be good, that’s never been the problem. The mid-season addition of Mats Sundin has to pay off for the ‘Nucks to advance.

The Blues win if… the bubble doesn’t burst. A journeyman goaltender, a battered squad, St. Louis is asking a lot expecting their monster second half run to continue. They remind me of Dan Ellis’ Nashville squad from a few years back, which isn’t a good omen.

You have to ask yourself… what about next year for Chris Mason? Goaltenders can emerge late – Tim Thomas for instance – but is the man who supplanted Manny Legace a long term solution?

Prediction: St. Louis in 7

Chicago (4) v. Calgary (5)

The Hawks win if… the kids handle the stress of playoff hockey. Both are otherwordly talents, but Jonathan Toews struggled early in his first season as captain, and Patrick Kane needs to find a way to produce in a seven game series. Goaltending depth is nice, but can this young team recover if they have to make a switch?

The Flames win if… Jarome Iginla has another year like 2004. Mikka Kipprusoff has been merely good, which qualifies as a down year, but he’s always a threat to steal a series. Health is also an issue for this group.

You have to ask yourself… how Olli Jokinen’s first playoff run is going to go. In what is probably the West’s most competitive series, his play will be the difference between success and failure for the Flames.

Prediction: Blackhawks in 5